Wake up（267）

 

267

 

The sightseeing boat is enjoying the world-famous Victoria Harbour. At night, the lights are shining and the scenery is stunning. The sightseeing boat was already in the center of the harbor, but Hong Wenxuan and Shen Zhirui stood beside the railing of the Victoria Harbor cruise ship, but they were no longer attracted by the vitality and dynamics of Hong Kong. The two retired old professors were touched by the words of the three veterans they met by chance. Mr. Han and Mr. Song, mainland veterans, talked about the unfair treatment of veterans and their experience of petitioning. The two professors began to question the loyalty of the Chinese military.

Hong Wenxuan told Shen Zhirui: Hundreds of Chinese veterans broke through the siege and interception of governments at all levels, and held demonstrations in front of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in Beijing, demanding a better solution to their resettlement. With such tight social control in China, how could these soldiers organize such large-scale protests and demonstrations? Will the plight of Chinese veterans weaken the military's loyalty to the regime? What impact will it have on the turbulent Chinese society?

Shen Zhirui said: Overseas media have reported on this. Yang Jianli, founder of the human rights organization "Citizen Power", said that veterans' rights protection or veterans' rights protection is not a new phenomenon. In the past 20 years, they have gone to Beijing to petition three times a year on average, and there are countless petitions in various provinces and cities. Large-scale petitions in Beijing are recent events. After June 4th, the petitions and demonstrations that can gather more than a thousand people in Beijing, except for Falun Gong in 1999, only veterans. If the authorities are determined to suppress it, a force of thousands to 10,000 people is still too weak to face the violent machinery of the CCP regime. Under the stability maintenance system, it is not difficult to mobilize tens of thousands of military police to deal with a few thousand people in this area. However, here's the trouble and stickiness of the matter: These are the bravest, most leadership, organized and therefore most admired of the veteran army of tens of millions, representing a mighty force of veterans, well-trained, disciplined, daring to Sacrifice, unite as one. If you dare to move this group of people, you must take the great risk of offending tens of millions of veterans. What is even more troublesome is that the most powerful weapon in the hands of the regime—the army—is inseparable from these veterans, and has a flesh and blood relationship: the army's tomorrow is their today, and their yesterday is the army's today. The highest level of the Communist Party of China has always regarded military power and military stability as the final guarantee of power. For this reason, Xi Jinping has made great efforts to fight against military corruption and military reform. Veterans with a high degree of organization are apprehensive about breaking cracks in the violent machine itself, and lack the willpower to suppress it. But on the other hand, there is not enough willingness to really solve the problem. First, there are too many people involved, and the corrupt local government cannot afford it financially. In addition, successful rights protection may become encouragement for other rights protection groups. So this time, the gathering at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection instead of the Military Commission building or the Ministry of Civil Affairs is actually to sue those corrupt officials related to the resettlement of veterans, and the previous central government promised to solve it but did not act as officials. The group of veterans is the second powder keg after Xinjiang.

Shen Zhirui said: Mr. Wang Kang, a Chinese folk scholar and independent commentator, believes that the veterans went to Beijing twice in one year to gather crowds to petition, which constituted unprecedented pressure on the CCP regime. Although it cannot be compared with the political demands of the Kronstad sailor uprising in 1921, it is close to a quasi-political opposition force, and it is obvious that the new core, Xi Jinping, has been most affected. From the analysis of the power contest within the party, it may be a rebound from Xi Jinping's purge of powerful figures in the military in recent years. From the perspective of the reshuffle of power at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it can also be regarded as a sign of the intensification of high-level power. How to deal with the public demonstrations of veterans in Beijing is a serious challenge for the Xi Jinping Group.

Mr. Gao Wenqian, a scholar of CCP history and the author of the book "Zhou Enlai in His Later Years", said: so many veterans can successfully go to Beijing to appeal, on the one hand, it has something to do with their quality, but under the grid-based stability maintenance system, it is impossible not to leak a little bit of information . At present, the military reform is in the stage of dealing with the transfer of middle and lower-level officers. Due to the large number of people, it is impossible to arrange local arrangements, and there is great resistance in the army. It is not ruled out that some people deliberately release water and lead the "disaster" of veterans to Beijing to vent their dissatisfaction with the military reform. The dilemma faced by veterans and veterans is the same dilemma faced by ordinary people today: old with no care, old with no home, old with no medical care. The military is the last line of defense for the authorities to maintain stability, and it is important to deal with it: if the attack is light, if it cannot be suppressed, it will spread to more places;

Hong Wenxuan said to Shen Zhirui: I often read "Voice of America". Mr. Chen Pokong, a political writer and current situation analyst, said that tens of thousands of veterans gathered at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to appeal, which is an accusation of local government corruption and deduction of veterans' benefits. However, there is still a possibility behind the scenes. Xi Jinping’s campaign against corruption in the military, reform of the military, and disarmament of 300,000 soldiers have aroused dissatisfaction in the military. It cannot be ruled out that Xi Jinping’s political opponents in the party and the military deliberately launched troubles, encouraged veterans to make trouble, and paid Xi Jinping. Difficulty, add chaos. Well-paid, youthful young police beat veterans. They need to understand that yesterday's oppressors have become today's oppressed. Their own generation will only repeat this fate. Chen Pokong also said that under the one-party dictatorship, the army was successful and the army was defeated. In the former Soviet Union and Romania, it was the army that turned against each other in the end, leading to the downfall of the Communist Party. China may not be able to avoid this consequence. Veterans riot today, active military personnel tomorrow, junior military officers or officers today, senior officers or generals tomorrow. It is easy and not easy to accommodate veterans. What is easy is that as long as the stolen money embezzled by generals at all levels is taken out, it is enough to resettle veterans across the country. What is not easy is that the CCP wants to spend money on the tip of the knife to maintain stability and increase military expenditure and military strength. Veterans can neither form combat effectiveness nor maintain stability. Zhongnanhai may think that it is not worth spending money on them.

On July 6, 2023, Xi Jinping inspected the eastern theater of the Communist Army and sent out another signal for war preparations. He emphasized the importance of "combat-oriented training" and demanded that the improvement of "winning ability" be accelerated.

Shen Zhirui said: Some critics believe that Xi Jinping has set the time point for attacking Taiwan as 2027. According to reports from the CCP’s CCTV and Xinhua News Agency, the officials accompanying Xi Jinping to inspect the eastern theater on the 6th included Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CCP, and others. In his speech, Xi Jinping emphasized "implementing the military strategic policy of the new era", "anchoring the goal of the army's 100-year struggle, and striving to create a new situation in the construction of theaters and preparations for war." He also said, "Now the world is entering a new turbulent change. Period. China’s security situation is unstable, and PLA personnel are required to go all out to perform the main battle functions of the theater.” The eastern theater of the Communist Party of China is one of the five major theaters. Its strategic direction is the Pacific Ocean and Taiwan. It has participated in many military operations against Taiwan. Including flights around Taiwan and large-scale military exercises. And Xi Jinping mentioned "to anchor the 100-year goal of building the army" refers to 2027. Many analysts have previously believed that the CCP may attack Taiwan in 2027.

Hong Wenxuan has a different view on this. He said: Gordon, the former US deputy director of national intelligence, mentioned the topic of "whether the CCP will invade Taiwan in 2027" in the "Washington Post" online forum on the 6th. "Although Xi Jinping's actions show that he is ready, it is not certain that it will happen because a military invasion of Taiwan will not be easy," he said.

Hong Wenxuan said: The well-known current commentator Tang Jingyuan analyzed that the signal Xi Jinping sent this time to inspect the Eastern Theater is a bit unusual.

First of all, the time when he went to inspect the Eastern Theater was neither in time for the Army Day, but also happened to be the same day that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen arrived in Beijing to visit. Therefore, this careful arrangement is not an accidental coincidence. In other words, he is clearly sending a very tough signal to the United States through such an inspection.

Tang Jingyuan said:

The second one is that there is a very important sentence in the title given by the party media Xinhua News Agency. He said, "We must anchor the 100-year goal of the army." The 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party happens to be in 2027. This time point and the CIA in the United States and these government officials at many levels in the United States, including members of Congress, have publicly stated more than once: 2027 is a very critical time point set by Xi Jinping to launch an invasion of Taiwan. So you will see that the time point released by itself is consistent with the time point judged and evaluated by the United States. From this point of view, Xi Jinping's visit to the eastern theater this time is undoubtedly closely related to the future plan to attack Taiwan.

Tang Jingyuan continued: The third is that we saw that in Xi Jinping's speech, he clearly stated that "military issues should be considered from a political perspective." The expression of this statement is actually the same logic as Xi Jinping himself said at the time to "view the closure of the city from a political perspective". It means that if you understand it, you must implement it, and if you don’t understand it, you must implement it. To put it bluntly, it sends out a signal, that is, whether you understand or not understand the action of invading Taiwan by force, you must move forward. At least in 2027, I think Xi Jinping's goal is to invade Taiwan by force. All the preparatory work has to be advanced to the point of finishing the door, just waiting for his order. As for when it comes to whether Xi Jinping still has such conditions and such an environment, he feels that he can have such confidence to issue this order, which is another matter.

Hong Wenxuan told Shen Zhirui: When it comes to the Taiwan Strait issue, or the mainland’s military invasion of Taiwan, those experts and scholars basically focus on the number of troops, military equipment, military technology, logistical support, and even the ambitions and motivations of politicians, etc. etc. Now it also talks about the materials of Chinese soldiers, including the demonstrations held by Chinese veterans in recent years, whether the plight of Chinese veterans will weaken the loyalty of the army to the regime, and what impact it will have on the turbulent Chinese society . However, the international community seems to have neglected to pay attention to the Chinese militias, and few people have made historical analysis of the current situation of the Chinese militias.

Shen Zhirui said: You are quite right. I also noticed this. Organize a militia and prepare for war. This is an important part of Mao Zedong's military thought.

Hong Wenxuan said:

The CCP has always believed that the militia is the foundation of the people's war. With the militia, there will be an inexhaustible source of strength. Starting from the CCP’s Autumn Harvest Uprising in 1927, after the 25,000-mile Long March, the Anti-Japanese War, and the Civil War between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, the CCP established a larger militia division after it took power in the mainland. During this period, the militia organization has changed repeatedly, and the number has also increased rapidly. Afterwards, the militia organization underwent erosion, deterioration, and several rectifications, and its effect was not as good as before, and its number dropped sharply. Until Mao Zedong set off the Cultural Revolution, launched the Red Guards, and seized power riots, the militia force was not reused by the CCP at first, and until the power seizure movement encountered strong obstacles, Mao Zedong began to put forward the slogan of "three combinations", relying on the strength of the militia to support the Cultural Revolution, implement the revolution, and promote production. task. After the Cultural Revolution and the struggle to seize power, the entire mainland became anarchic, bringing the militias to the verge of collapse. The militias themselves, instigated by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping's incumbents, often combined with the masses or the army to launch anti-Mao incidents or participate in armed struggles. Mao Zedong and Lin Biao took various measures to tighten the control of the militia in an attempt to implement the militia system.

Shen Zhirui said: I remember, in order to implement Mao Zedong's instruction of "strengthening combat readiness and preparing for war". On March 28, 1969, the "Lintong County Militia Independent Regiment" was established. On September 30, the "Lintong County Combat Readiness Civil Air Defense Leading Group" was established, which was divided into four groups: political work, combat readiness training, civil air defense, and wartime service. Later, the military organization of "Lintong County Militia Independent Regiment Headquarters, Political Department, and Logistics Department" was established, and the chief and deputy chiefs of staff of the headquarters, the chief and deputy directors of the Political Department, and the chief and deputy directors of the Logistics Department were appointed. . On March 28, 1972, the county party committee adjusted and improved the organization of the militia, and appointed the chief and deputy leaders of the independent militia headquarters, the political department, the logistics department, the combat unit, the communication unit, the reconnaissance unit, the organization unit, and the propaganda unit , Security Unit, Supply Unit, General Affairs Unit, Transportation Unit Chief, Deputy Chief and other positions. On April 2, the county party committee forwarded the "Opinions of the Party Committee of the County People's Armed Forces Department on Carrying out Activities to Commemorate the 10th Anniversary of Chairman Mao's Militia Work "Three Implementation" Instructions". The county militia division commemorative meeting, and militia companies from Xiekou Liushu, Wenjiazhai, Chengguan West Street, Xiquan Jiacun, Xinxing, Qujia and other militia companies selected some militiamen to perform live ammunition shooting demonstrations at the meeting.

Hong Wenxuan said:

If I remember correctly, it should be July 18, 1975. In order to implement Mao Zedong's strategic policy of "preparing for war, preparing for famine, and serving the people" and "digging deep holes, accumulating grain widely, and not seeking hegemony", Lintong County was established within the county Village teams were launched to dig tunnels, and every household dug deep holes. From the county town to the countryside, all government agencies, units, factories, mines, schools, communes, and garrisons took this matter as a serious political task until the spring of 1976.

Hong Wenxuan also said: The old people have long forgotten these things, and the young people don't know these things at all. Western media doesn't care about these things either. In the eyes of some people, China's militias are nothing more than mobs. I think they underestimated the Chinese militia. I heard that Xi Jinping has begun to reorganize the militia. When some people only focus on urban management, agricultural management, and cultural management, the Chinese militia must be reorganizing. Militia organizations are not necessarily external, but more of an internal role. This was true of the Cultural Revolution, and it will be true of Cultural Revolution 2.0.

Shen Zhirui pointed to the waves of Victoria Harbor and said: The illuminated Victoria Harbor looks magnificent, but it is not peaceful. Look at these waves, they are not calm. Just now, we communicated with the three veterans we met by chance, which made me feel that the tide of civil war or civil strife has begun to roar.