Wake up（117）

 

117

 

In the evening, the setting sun has restrained its dazzling light and turned into a golden disc. The cloudless sky is blue, like a clear sky lake. Slowly, the color became thicker and thicker, as if the lake was getting deeper. As dusk fell, crickets began to sing softly in the bamboo bushes beside the village road, and frogs croaked like drums endlessly in the paddy fields. The dim twilight gradually lowered down, the sky and the earth were stitched together, and the boundless wheat fields changed from emerald green to azure blue and dark gray.

That night, He Jiafu, Chai Jianhua and Pan Guangfu continued to talk about the Wuhan epidemic.

Chai Jianhua said to Pan Guangfu: Maybe I am an old Chinese doctor and I am very concerned about the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, but there are always many things that I don't understand. I also read reports from time to time, but I can't find the real answer.

On January 1, 2020, the first 4 editions of "Hubei Daily" in the whole year were released, and the newsletter of "Wuhan Municipal Health and Medical Commission Notified Pneumonia Epidemic" appeared in the lower right corner of the last edition. On the previous day, the newspaper made 12 full-page special reports on the province's development achievements in 2019.

The "Hubei Daily" report on the pneumonia epidemic at that time was completely consistent with the content of the relevant notification issued by the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission on December 31, and it was more concise. Since medical research institutions were still detecting pathogens and investigating the cause of infection at that time, until January 11, the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission referred to the new virus outbreak as "viral pneumonia of unknown cause" in its external information bulletins.

Notifications of the epidemic at this stage are not every day, and the number of missing days (7 days) is even more than the number of days notified (4 days), while the data from January 6 to January 9 is completely missing.

In the notification issued by the Wuhan Health and Medical Commission at this stage, the following points have been emphasized: all patients were treated in isolation in Wuhan medical institutions; no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission was found; no medical staff infection was found. Among them, in the early reports, the contact history of the cases with the South China Seafood Market was relatively emphasized.

On January 27, the Institute of Viral Diseases of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention disclosed that 33 of the 585 environmental samples from the South China Seafood Market in Wuhan contained nucleic acid of the new coronavirus, confirming that the virus originated from wild animals sold at the South China Seafood Market. These samples were collected in the market twice on December 31 and January 12, of which 515 samples were collected on December 31.

However, a paper published by the medical journal "The Lancet" on January 24 showed that among the 41 patients announced by the Wuhan Municipal Health and Medical Commission on January 11, the first patient with onset of symptoms on December 1 did not have South China. Seafood market exposure history. Another paper published in the same issue showed that six Shenzhen tourists who were in Wuhan from December 29, 2019 to January 4, 2020, had no history of exposure to the South China Seafood Market or contact with wild animals. I was infected with the new coronavirus because I was visiting relatives in a local hospital in Wuhan.

According to the "National Surveillance, Screening and Management Plan for Pneumonia of Unknown Cause", when medical staff in Wuhan medical institutions find a case that meets the definition of pneumonia of unknown cause, they should immediately report to the relevant department of the institution and organize an expert group of the unit to carry out investigation within 12 hours. Consultation and investigation, and direct online reporting, and report to the municipal disease control agency at the same time. After receiving a report of a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown origin, the disease control agency should immediately conduct an epidemiological investigation, and at the same time organize the registration, tracking and medical observation of the close contacts of the case, and report to the provincial health administrative department for record and review.

However, due to the identification and traceability of the pathogen at that time, the etiology of the pathogen could not be determined, that is, it could not be included in the ranks of "notifiable infectious diseases", and it was impossible to organize a larger-scale epidemic investigation and notification process. Even the isolation measures inside the hospital are not in place.

A doctor who was infected in the hospital confirmed in an interview with Beijing Qingshen that his department began to treat patients with "unknown pneumonia" on January 7 and 8. Immediately after the first case had fever symptoms, lung cancer was performed. Departmental CT and detection of respiratory virus, mycoplasma and chlamydia. Among them, the lung CT detected ground-glass lesions in the lungs, which was consistent with the symptoms of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus infection. The doctor once suggested that nucleic acid testing should be done to confirm the diagnosis, but "the experts said that they could not decide whether to do the testing or not." Subsequently, the doctor was also infected at work on January 10, and did not undergo a nucleic acid test until January 24. By the time Beiqing Daily published on January 26, it had not yet been confirmed as a true diagnosis.

Chai Jianhua asked Pan Guangfu: What happened in Wuhan during the days when there were no new cases?

Pan Guangfu replied:

At that time, I logged on to the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. In the "Public Announcement", I could see all the "Circulars on Viral Pneumonia of Unknown Cause" issued by the committee.

 

The first notification was issued on December 31, 2019. According to the report, "27 cases have been discovered so far, 7 of which are in serious condition, the condition of the rest is stable and controllable, and 2 cases have improved and are scheduled to be discharged in the near future."

The second notification was issued on January 3, 2020. According to the report, as of 8:00 on January 3, 2020, a total of 44 patients with unexplained viral pneumonia diagnosis were found, including 11 severe cases.

The third notification was issued on January 5. The report said: As of 8:00 on January 5, 2020, our city has reported a total of 59 patients with unexplained viral pneumonia diagnosis, including 7 severe patients.

 

Pan Guangfu continued:

According to the general law of the development of the epidemic, after the epidemic is discovered, once the epidemic is not controlled in time, more and more cases will generally be discovered later. But the strange thing is that 5 days after the notification on January 5, Wuhan stopped the notification.

The official website of the Wuhan Health Commission reported the epidemic again on January 11. According to the report, as of 24:00 on January 10, 2020, 41 cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection were initially diagnosed, of which 2 cases have been discharged, 7 cases were severe, and 1 case died. The remaining patients are in stable condition.

The latest information in the notification on January 11 is that one case died. When was the first case who died? Did he die during the 5 days when the notification was stopped? In this regard, the Wuhan Health Commission did not report in detail.

So, why did the Wuhan Health Commission stop reporting on January 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10? In this regard, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission did not explain.

Coincidentally, the Changjiang Daily, the official newspaper of the Wuhan Municipal Party Committee, published a report titled "Wuhan Enters the Two Sessions Time" on the front page on January 6. "Changjiang Daily" reported that on January 11, the Third Session of the Eleventh Hubei Provincial Political Consultative Conference opened and closed on January 15. On January 12, the third session of the 13th Hubei Provincial People's Congress opened and closed on the morning of the 17th.

Coincidentally, the few days when the Wuhan Health and Medical Commission did not announce the new cases to the public happened to be the time of the Wuhan Two Sessions, neither too early nor too late. This is really a big coincidence.

Pan Guangfu turned to He Jiafu and said, "The puzzling coincidence phenomenon appeared for the second time soon."

Pan Guangfu turned on his phone and searched his data collection: "Let's go back to the official website of the Wuhan Health Commission to check again."

Looking back at the epidemic notification issued by the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission in January, after reporting 59 confirmed cases of "pneumonia of unknown cause" on January 5, and between 24:00 on January 11, the confirmation process of "new coronavirus" made Wuhan There were 18 fewer patients who had previously been diagnosed with "viral pneumonia of unknown cause".

Beginning on January 13, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission has successively notified:

On the 12th, there were no new cases or deaths in Wuhan, and one case was cured and discharged.

On the 13th, there were no new cases, no cures and no deaths in Wuhan;

On the 14th, there were no new cases, no cures, and no deaths;

There were no new cases and no deaths on the 15th.

On the 16th, 4 new cases were added, 3 cases were cured and discharged, and there were no new deaths. There was a "window period" of "no new confirmed cases" in Wuhan.

On the 17th, 17 new cases were added, 4 cases were cured, and there were no deaths. But objectively, this data can only be released on the 18th, and the Hubei People's Congress closed on the morning of the 17th.

Pan Guangfu shook his head and said: "It's really a coincidence. There were no new cases during the two sessions in Wuhan, and the death cases were announced just after the closing of the two sessions in Wuhan. Generally speaking, the two sessions in Wuhan and the two sessions in Hubei Province Dexiang, peace and stability, all closed successfully.”

After the closing of the two sessions in Wuhan, the Wuhan Health and Health Commission reported new cases every day, and more and more deaths.

On January 28, 2020, the National Health and Medical Commission issued a notice stating that as of 24:00 on January 27, a total of 4,515 cases of pneumonia confirmed with new coronavirus infection had been reported from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) across the country, and the cumulative number of deaths There are 106 cases and 6973 suspected cases.

30 provinces across the country have launched a first-level response to major public health emergencies. In order to further prevent and control the epidemic, the General Office of the State Council has decided to extend the national Spring Festival holiday to February 2 (the ninth day of the first month of the lunar calendar), and some provinces, cities, and enterprises independently require working hours to be even later. The novel coronavirus pneumonia has evolved into a nationwide epidemic in a short period of time.

On January 29, a paper entitled "Initial Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China" was published on the official website of the New England Journal of Medicine. The paper concluded through data analysis: "Since mid-December 2019, human-to-human transmission has occurred between close contacts."

The New England Journal of Medicine is currently the medical academic journal with the highest impact factor in the world, with an impact factor of about 70, while that of The Lancet is about 60. The New England Journal of Medicine was founded in 1812, ten years earlier than The Lancet. Its founders were John Collins Warren, a famous Boston surgeon, and James Jackson, the founder of Massachusetts General Hospital. "Medical care should be guided by science". This is the philosophy behind the founding of The New England Journal of Medicine.

Since mid-December 2019 in Wuhan, "human-to-human transmission" has occurred between close contacts. Is this statement reliable? Is the voice of overseas medical academic journals such as "New England Journal of Medicine" and "The Lancet" scientific?

The website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervision Commission published an article by the famous Xu Menglong at 10:15 on March 3, 2020. The article said:

Whether it is the "New England Journal of Medicine" or "The Lancet", they all have a common feature, that is, they actively pay attention to hot issues. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the world's top academic journals, including the above two journals, have published more than a hundred papers on the epidemic, covering epidemiology for predicting the trend of the epidemic, virology for isolating virus structures, and research on symptoms and diagnosis. and therapeutic medicine and so on.

Pan Guangfu sighed: There are two fronts in the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic, one is the front line of epidemic prevention and control led by politics, and the other is scientific research and material production. The purpose of scientists writing papers is to share their research results on viruses with the world. In this war without gunpowder, academic workers, like front-line medical staff, play a very important role, and jointly contribute their wisdom and strength to win the battle against epidemic prevention and control. It is rare for an article affirming overseas medical academic journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet to be published on the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission. In any case, the central government fully affirmed the overseas statement: since mid-December 2019, the phenomenon of "human-to-human transmission" of the new coronavirus has occurred in Wuhan.

What He Jiafu and Chai Jianhua said to Pan Guangfu were speechless. Since the "human-to-human" novel coronavirus has occurred in Wuhan since mid-December 2019, why are the two sessions in Wuhan and Hubei Province held from January 6th to 17th? Why did the Wuhan Health Commission stop reporting the epidemic from January 6 to 10? Why did the mainstream media not report on the "human-to-human transmission" of the new coronavirus in detail?

What is puzzling is that during this period of time, Wuhan also held the Wuhan Baibuting Wanjia Banquet as scheduled. Not only that, Wuhan also launched the 2020 Spring Festival Wuhan Time Activity with the theme of "Strong Chinese Style, Warm River City Love". You can visit the main cultural and tourist attractions in the city for free. Wuhan has no measures or reports to prevent "human-to-human transmission" of the new coronavirus.